Leadership in turbulence

22/2/2025

‘Do not get too close to the leading aircraft. Do not get below the leading aircraft’s flight path. Be particularly wary when light wind conditions exist.’ (Civil Aviation Authority, NZ)

Seat belts on. Buckle up. We could be in for a rough ride. Caught in wake turbulence, with a change of President in the cockpit and the USA veering off in a new direction, much of the rest of the world is struggling, suddenly and desperately, to regain stability: a sense of safety, security and control. A brace position is an instinctive human response: curled up in foetus position with head down and eyes closed tight, hoping or praying to survive. A crash landing can hurt. We may wish we’d paid for a seat in the exit row.

Look now and see some world actors tipping their caps with feigned enthusiasm and rushing around frantically, shouting ‘Yes sir, no sir, three bags full, sir’; trying hard to win approval, make all the right noises and to do all the right things to please or placate the self-proclaimed King. It may well mean sacrificing long-held beliefs, values, principles and relationships but, hey – pragmatism over idealism. The end justifies the means. Sell your soul if the price is high enough and the risks and rewards seem worthwhile.

Others, a minority, are speaking from the shadows in muted tones and attempting, in acts of sometimes naïve yet heroic-sounding bravery, to hold a shaken position. They work hard to look confident, to speak with sincere conviction from moral high ground, but anxiety shows its face through the look in their eyes, their wringing hands or their clenched fists. Straining nerves to hold onto hope, they cling to the remnants of an unexpectedly-redundant paradigm, resisting the urge to give up and get on board with a dominating new.

One final group have closed their eyes, put their fingers in their ears, and are singing gently but happily from the sidelines, ‘La, la, la.’ It reveals a belief that, if they keep quiet and keep their heads below the parapet for long enough, it will all pass by. Sooner or later, everything will settle down again. It’s the mark of the optimist who doesn’t want to be troubled by an inconvenient truth. They ignore the dismantling of democracy hidden in plain sight and appear completely immune to the geopolitical drama unfolding before them.

Each reaction represents, in essence, a defensive routine – flight, fight or freeze – in the face a perceived threat: a daunting future marked by anxiety and uncertainty. To react is, by definition, to follow. It’s what we do when someone, or something, has seized the initiative or taken it from us. What we need now is humble and courageous leadership; people who will bring hopeful vision, whose behaviour is rooted in ethical values and who are not seduced, buffeted or derailed by opportunistic possibilities or a gathering storm.

26 Comments

Brandon Hill

22/2/2025 08:10:23 pm

Nick - you hear that? That’s the sound of silence from those who should be standing up for democratic values. While some world leaders scramble to appease, others whisper resistance. But the loudest voices? They belong to those pretending none of this is happening. Because speaking up carries risk. And silence, right now, is the safer bet.

Nick Wright

23/2/2025 09:28:23 am

Hi Brandon. You reminded me of Pastor Martin Niemöller's chilling reflections after the Nazi horrors of World War 2: First they came for the Communists and I did not speak out because I was not a Communist. Then they came for the Socialists and I did not speak out because I was not a Socialist. Then they came for the trade unionists and I did not speak out because I was not a trade unionist. Then they came for the Jews and I did not speak out because I was not a Jew. Then they came for me...and there was no one left to speak out for me.'

Mónica Maietta

22/2/2025 08:19:34 pm

I agree, Nick. The re-election of Donald Trump has precipitated a seismic shift in the global political landscape, compelling nations to reassess their positions amidst an increasingly unpredictable international order.

Trump's "America First" doctrine, characterised by unilateral decision-making and a transactional approach to alliances, has introduced a level of volatility that challenges the foundational principles of multilateralism and collective security.

In Europe, leaders are confronting the erosion of traditional transatlantic ties. Trump's overtures toward Russia, including intimate dialogues with President Vladimir Putin and rhetoric undermining Ukraine, have unsettled European allies and raised questions about the reliability of U.S. commitments to NATO. This realignment has emboldened authoritarian regimes and sown discord within the European Union, as member states grapple with internal divisions and the rise of far-right movements.

The United Kingdom, under Keir Starmer, faces a delicate balancing act. With an upcoming meeting at the White House, Starmer must navigate the complexities of reaffirming NATO solidarity while addressing the President's unpredictable policy shifts. The stakes are high, as any misstep could further destabilise the region and undermine efforts to present a unified front against external threats.

Beyond Europe, the global community is witnessing a broader trend of democratic backsliding.

The President's expansion of executive powers and the acquiescence of legislative bodies have sparked debates about the resilience of democratic institutions in the face of authoritarian tendencies. Scholars emphasise the critical role of independent judiciaries, a free press and active civil societies in countering these challenges and preserving democratic norms.

In this turbulent environment, the call for humble and courageous leadership resonates profoundly.

Nations must prioritise ethical governance, uphold the rule of law and engage in collaborative problem-solving to navigate the complexities of the current geopolitical climate. The path forward demands a steadfast commitment to democratic values and a concerted effort to resist the allure of authoritarianism, ensuring that the principles of freedom and justice remain paramount in the global order.

23/2/2025 09:37:32 am

Hi Mónica and thank you for sharing such an articulate summary of some of the pressing issues we are facing at the moment. To be honest, I have very little confidence in Keir Starmer's ability to navigate the turbulence successfully. As a legalistic bureaucrat, Trump is likely to run rings around him. Still - these are early days in the Trump administration and in other leaders' responses to him. We must hold onto hope.

Ben Cestrone

22/2/2025 08:22:12 pm

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome aboard Flight 2025, with Captain Trump at the helm. Please fasten your seat belts and prepare for a journey through turbulent skies, where the in-flight entertainment includes impromptu policy announcements and unexpected detours. In the first-class cabin, we have world leaders tipping their hats and exclaiming, "Yes sir, no sir, three bags full, sir," as they scramble to align with the Captain's ever-changing directives. Prime Minister Starmer is en route to the cockpit, perhaps to discuss the latest episode of "NATO: Who Needs It Anyway?"

Meanwhile, in the economy section, a group of passengers clings to their well-worn copies of "Democracy for Dummies," attempting to maintain composure as the flight path veers off course. Their white-knuckled grip on the armrests suggests a mix of anxiety and indigestion, possibly from the in-flight meal of authoritarianism served with a side of populism.

At the rear of the plane, a cheerful chorus sings, "La, la, la," fingers in ears, eyes shut tight, convinced that if they ignore the turbulence, it will simply disappear. Their optimism is as unshakable as the Captain's Twitter feed, despite the fasten seat belt sign flashing ominously overhead. As we navigate this unpredictable journey, it's clear that our flight plan requires more than autopilot. We need co-pilots with a steady hand, a moral compass, and perhaps a new map that doesn't lead us straight into the storm. Until then, sit back, try to relax, and remember: in the event of an emergency, your nearest exit may be behind you.

23/2/2025 09:44:13 am

Hi Ben and thank you. What a genius way of reframing the blog! Very creative and much appreciated. As I read it, I didn't know whether to laugh...or cry. That said, dark humour may well be a way of helping to get us through the turbulence and - who knows - and may even lighten the mood enough to help us see underlying issues and ideas more clearly!

Paula Souster

22/2/2025 08:23:55 pm

Love the 'wake turbulence' metaphor Nick. Hadn't heard of that before but it definitely fits!

23/2/2025 09:45:46 am

Thanks Paula. I had to Google it to find out what that kind of turbulence is called. Seemed appropriate - especially for those rushing to fall in behind Trump's new world agenda.

Max Poensgen

22/2/2025 08:26:44 pm

Great analogy and reflections as always, Nick. Here are my thoughts. The exit row offers extra legroom, but at a cost. In an emergency, you bear responsibility for others. And yet, how often do we pay for the seat hoping for comfort while ignoring the duty that comes with it? This is where much of the world stands today, seeking safety while avoiding responsibility. The turbulence of global politics at the moment is very unsettling but resignation is not an option. The question is not whether we will be affected by the storm, but whether we will take action to steer through it. Your blog asks for humble, courageous leadership. Perhaps the real challenge is whether we are willing to be those leaders ourselves?

23/2/2025 09:58:33 am

Hi Max - and thank you for your affirming feedback. I love your extension of the 'exit row' metaphor and how that sheds further light on the kind of ethical leadership that is needed now. Thank you for the sobering and helpful challenge too: 'Are we willing to be those leaders ourselves?'

(On a related theme, you may find these short recent reflections resonate: https://www.nick-wright.com/blog/shared-leadership; https://www.nick-wright.com/blog/agency-as-leadership)

Kerri Markan

22/2/2025 08:32:12 pm

Hey Nick. Fasten your seat belts, keep your tray tables locked, and hope the pilot remembers how democracy works. If they don’t, don’t worry! Autopilot - courts, institutions and the occasional journalist - might just keep things steady. If not, brace for impact. And if you’re in an exit row? Don’t expect the parachute of international law to open in time.

23/2/2025 10:05:38 am

Hi Kerri. Thank you for your creative response! I guess that's one of the deep fears at the moment - the erosion of previous checks and balances in US and European nations that very seriously risk undermining the democratic project as a whole. The UK is heading down a different track to the US yet with the same risks and consequences (https://www.nick-wright.com/blog/kafkaesque).

Daphne Walters

22/2/2025 08:38:40 pm

Nick, I fear the pilot has hijacked the plane and is holding the passengers for ransom. :(

23/2/2025 10:06:52 am

Hi Daphne. You may well turn out to be right. And I hope not too.

Simon Jeffrey

22/2/2025 10:16:28 pm

Admire your courage, clarity and artistry in writing these blogs, Nick. It must sometimes feel like spitting into the wind? Still, better to spit than to swallow. 🙏

23/2/2025 09:22:04 am

Thank you, Simon. I like Rebecca Solnit's words on this question: 'Hope does not mean saying this is not bad, and it does not mean saying that we can defeat it. It just means saying we will keep showing up. That we will not give up. That we will assess our powers and weaknesses and recognise that the future we face looks grim, but we do not know how it will unfold, and neither do those we oppose. How it will unfold depends in no small part on what we do. People too often think hope is smiles and sunshine, when it’s fury in the face of danger and oppression, and pressing on in the storm.' So - 'spitting into the wind'? Maybe. Hold onto faith, hope and love - and speak from that place - absolutely.

Chuck Anderson

22/2/2025 10:35:16 pm

Hey Nick. Interesting article but I think you're ignoring the "inconvenient truth" that President Donald Trump has already achieved so many great things since being re-elected to office. Here are some examples:

Advancing Free Speech Protections

Executive order on restoring freedom of speech: On January 20, 2025, President Trump signed an executive order aimed at securing the right of Americans to engage in constitutionally protected speech. This order prohibits federal officers and the use of taxpayer resources from engaging in activities that would unconstitutionally abridge free speech rights.

Resolving International Conflicts

Initiating U.S.-Russia summit: Preparations are underway for a summit between President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. The discussions aim to address broad global issues, including the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, with the goal of restoring diplomatic relations and supporting peace efforts.

Social Policies and Cultural Initiatives

Advancing social policies: The administration has enacted policies such as banning paper straws and officially recognizing only two genders, reflecting a commitment to traditional values and environmental considerations.

Immigration and Border Security

Strengthening immigration policies: The administration has taken decisive action to address illegal immigration by ending federal benefits for undocumented immigrants and implementing measures to limit automatic birthright citizenship. These policies aim to uphold the integrity of the nation's immigration system.

Economic Policy and Deregulation

Tax reform and deregulation: President Trump has continued his commitment to reducing the size of the federal government. The Department of Government Efficiency (Doge) has implemented measures to cut the federal workforce, aiming to streamline operations and reduce bureaucratic overhead.

You could say, "Welcome aboard Trump Airways and enjoy your flight!"

23/2/2025 10:13:20 am

Hi Chuck and thank you for the fair and gracious challenge. Yes, these things are rarely as simple and binary as I have, perhaps, presented them here. That said, I guess the question of whether these things are 'great' - and the same is true of any political decisions anywhere - depends on one's own standpoint, goals and experiences, for example: one's own underlying beliefs and values; whether a winner or a loser in the game; whether one considers the global consequences worthwhile.

Marisela Valentina Rodríguez

23/2/2025 10:22:12 am

Nick. It's not a game. It's real.

23/2/2025 08:32:13 pm

Hi Marisela. Yes, it is very real indeed. Trump views his negotiation tactics as a zero sum game - in which he alone intends to win.

Lilla

23/2/2025 01:19:39 pm

Thank you, Nick, for your recent thought-provoking and powerful blogs, Kafkaesque and Leadership in Turbulence. They are more than just writing—they serve as a compelling call to action, boldly upholding democratic values and confronting global chaos. Their message is more crucial than ever in these dark and uncertain times!!

You are a courageous advocate for human rights and freedom of speech. If England loses its independence and the right to free expression, the world will lose a crucial leader in defending liberty. I sincerely hope that more people wake up and join this vital movement—intellectuals, journalists, and brave leaders who seek effective solutions and new approaches to counter the threats of modern terrorism and authoritarianism. The world is experiencing growing conflicts, political instability, and economic uncertainty, with shifting alliances affecting global power. At the same time, climate change, new technology, and social movements are shaping the future of leadership, security, and cooperation.
We don’t know where these changes will take us, but it’s crucial to use every available tool to stand against injustice and threats to freedom in all areas of life—and you are doing just that! May God bless you on this journey! 🙏🙏

23/2/2025 08:56:02 pm

Thank you, Lilla, for your words of encouragement. It feels 'courageous' in the UK these days for anyone to write or speak a view that challenges the prevailing norm, or clashes with what the current government considers acceptable. The threats to freedom of expression are real. It feels painful that it took J.D. Vance recently to call out the UK on its eroding of free speech.

Rudi Weinzierl

23/2/2025 08:33:15 pm

Thanks for the blog Nick. It describes very well the way in which people react to dangerous human totalitarian exercises of power. Yes, and we need people with civil courage who can show ways of acting in a humane and responsible way. But it is at least as important that we show courage in society by, on the one hand, following the path of resistance alongside leading figures and, on the other hand, developing loving, creative and socially resolving concepts ourselves. Our Creator help and strengthen us for this!

23/2/2025 09:01:10 pm

Thank you, Rudi, for your insightful comments - as always. In conversations with you this week, I also appreciate your idea that it's not only about demonstrating courageous leadership in the face of totalitarian-style influences in society, but also instilling courage in others too. I always admire the way in which you role model 'resistance with love'. It's not an easy path to tread. Yes, may God help us with whatever lays ahead.

Katharine DuPont

23/2/2025 10:54:37 pm

I love your choice of the photo Nick. Perfect for this theme!

24/2/2025 05:06:10 pm

Thanks Katharine. I was pleased when I found it on Pexels!