Dazed and confused

22/10/2021

‘For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple and wrong.’ (H.L. Mencken)

In a world that’s so often characterised by continual change, it appears that one thing that doesn’t change is our continual thirst for new acronyms. VUCA, RUPT or BANI – which best describes your view of reality? Which most helps you, or your clients, move forward to fulfil vision, values and goals, whilst navigating whom or whatever could fly in unexpectedly from left field on route?

BANI, a more recent model than its predecessors, has some attractive and useful features for the current context. It acknowledges profound phenomenological dimensions of human experience, not simply the dynamics of the environmental realities we face. BANI draws attention to Brittleness, Anxiety, Non-linearity and Incomprehensibility and may provide a platform for addressing them.

Brittleness recognises that those things we regard as secure can fall apart overnight. Anxiety points to associated social health risks of anxiety and depression. Non-linear means it’s hard to predict consequences of actions with certainty because influencing factors can spring up from anywhere. Incomprehensible proposes that sense-making is impossible and we can find ourselves bewildered.

If that all sounds a bit abstract, think back to what you (and others) have witnessed and experienced in the past 2 years; how much of what has happened could have been known definitively in advance; what the impacts and implications have been for different people, groups and nations; how it has looked and felt; the deep questions it has raised; how clear and agreed a way forward is from here.

Macro examples have included the ongoing climate emergency, the Covid19 pandemic, the plastic-in-the-oceans disaster and the migrant crisis. We’ve seen shifts in the world’s political and economic landscapes that have been, at times, so sudden and so dramatic that they’ve caused whiplash and backlash. We have felt the ripple effects in our organisations, communities and personal lives.

What wisdom can BANI offer? Here are glimpses: Brittleness calls for resilience and collaboration; Anxiety: for empathy and human-spiritual relationship; Non-linearity: for adaptivity and agility; Incomprehensibility: for intuition and risk-taking. These are pointers to the kinds of qualities and capabilities we can develop for the future, with courage and humility as an underpinning stance.

Do you feel dazed and confused in a BANI world? Curious to discover how I can help? Get in touch!

20 Comments

Richard Simpson

24/10/2021 11:42:46 am

Thanks again Nick for another thoughtful and stimulating post. I had never heard of BANI before, but I do have an interest in complexity. Complexity seems a more accurate reflection of the reality I experience day-to-day. I used to wonder why successive Governments spent so much time addressing the unintended consequences of previous Government policy - until I discovered complexity and non-linearity. In Government and in most organisations, there is constant pressure and bias to simplify problems, to see effects linked to specific causes (usually based on a confirmation of one's own biases), and to take action without due regard to systemic impacts. And quite often, in our super-rational world, we fail to take account of the dynamics of human behaviour. I sometimes think about our (UK) Government's initial response to the pandemic and its priority to Save The NHS (i.e. to stop it breaking under the strain) which involved the discharge of untested elderly patients to care homes, which added thousands to the death toll. They saw one problem and a simple solution; created another problem which was probably far more serious than the one they sought to solve. We see the same responses to environmental and climate issues. I worry that the quality of thinking of our leaders is no match for the complexity of the wicked problems the world faces.

Nick Wright

25/10/2021 10:16:27 pm

Hi Richard. Thank you for your encouraging feedback, and for sharing such interesting insights and great practical examples vis a vis complexity. In the non-governmental organisation (NGO) world, in which I do much of my OD work, the question of 'unintended consequences' (and, related, 'perverse incentives') is always at the forefront of my mind.

We cannot possibly anticipate all the potential consequences of actions taken with good intentions, but we do well to pray, develop critical reflexivity and keep our eyes and ears as wide open as possible before taking an action - and/or as things progress on route. On this theme, some of these short pieces (some of which will be familiar to you!) may resonate:

https://www.nick-wright.com/blog/do-no-harm
https://www.nick-wright.com/blog/micro-macro
https://www.nick-wright.com/blog/bubbles

Since Covid19, I have noticed complexity arising more and more as an implicit theme in my coaching work. Clients sometimes find O'Connor & McDermott's differentiation between 'simple complexity' and 'dynamic complexity' useful, especially if they have been trying to deal with examples of latter situations as if they were the former. On that theme, this short piece may be of interest?

https://www.nick-wright.com/blog/systems

27/10/2021 04:03:36 pm

Thanks Nick - it's interesting re-reading your blogs within a slightly different perspective or question. What I love about your posts is that you make me think in a way that I enjoy.

2/11/2021 09:10:06 am

Thank you, Richard. You are a great encourager to keep on writing..! :)

Justine Dichoso

20/11/2021 11:23:06 am

Yes it is!

20/11/2021 11:23:49 am

Hi Justine. I'm intrigued. Can you say more..?

Jim MacQueen

20/11/2021 11:25:13 am

There’s a reason complex problems are also known as wicked problems which cannot be solved, only managed. I find it helpful to look at a big picture and then try to understand the elements of the system. With that I can begin to understand the relationships among those elements. This is where I maybe able to exert some influence. BANI may be closest to this outlook.

Patrick Trottier

20/11/2021 11:26:37 am

I agree Jim - 'context' and 'relational thinking' is paramount to fully understand many things - not just 'problems' where we are usually stuck on in our thinking...but, also 'What do we want to create?' which is a whole different human information thought process... just my 2.1 cents... :o)

20/11/2021 11:47:00 am

Hi Patrick. Yes - in that sense, our framing of a situation can have a significant influence and impact on what we see, believe is significant and how we respond. It has resonances with appreciative inquiry, solutions and strengths-based coaching etc.

On that topic, you may find this short article interesting? https://www.nick-wright.com/seeing-is-believing.html

20/11/2021 11:42:04 am

Hi Jim and thanks for the note. I agree - looking at wider systems can certainly help when seeking to make sense of complex issues and situations. (On that theme, this short piece may be of interest? https://www.nick-wright.com/blog/micro-macro)

A challenge can arise when what happens and why is too dynamically-complex for us to understand, predict or manage. (On that theme, this short piece may be of interest too? https://www.nick-wright.com/blog/systems)

A feature of BANI that I find interesting and attractive is that, in the face of dynamic complexity, it focuses our attention on how we manage ourselves, rather than necessarily on how we manage an intrinsically unmanageable problem per se.

20/11/2021 11:27:42 am

'Complexity' is just the patterns were cannot 'see'... same with the term we use as 'chaos'... both have similar dynamics based on the limitations of current human abilities and how we currently think... 'pattern interface technology' (EODC®) will help our natural, holographic minds ( Bohm, Pribram and the Holographic Model) understand that which we do not currently understand from our simple linear thinking of the 20th Century into 'holographic, systemic thinking' of the 21st Century...... just my 2 cents...

20/11/2021 09:48:37 pm

Hi Patrick and thanks for sharing such thoughtful insights. I was curious about your expression, 'Complexity is just the patterns we cannot see.'

It reminded me of a philosophy lecturer in my earlier days who challenged me on the necessity of causal relationships, drawing on insights from quantum mechanics (see, e.g. https://physicsworld.com/a/quantum-mechanics-defies-causal-order-experiment-confirms/)

I wonder if, when we consider high levels of dynamic complexity, we are only able to discern (or, psychologically, construct) apparent 'patterns' in retrospect..?

22/11/2021 01:13:47 pm

Re: "An experiment has confirmed that quantum mechanics allows events to occur with no definite causal order."

In Emergent Organizational Development® and Emergent Change® (EODC®) we look at ''pattern influencers' and their relative strength relating to the 'ebb and flow' of emergent change.

Don't think it is psychological... more using technology to display data into relational information to manifest relational understanding, insights, effective decision-making and actions...

22/11/2021 01:19:56 pm

Hi Patrick. That does sound interesting. My sense is that every such model is necessarily 'psychological' in the sense that e.g. what it focuses on, what sense it makes of it etc. is inherently socially-constructed. In case of interest, have a glance at this short clip by Kenneth Gergen (starting at 3 mins 7 secs): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-AsKFFX9Ib0&t=330s

Krista Washbourne

20/11/2021 11:28:55 am

An interesting take on the new world. I have long been interested in VUCA, but over the past two years, BANI definitely does seem more fitting.

I wonder--will things return to more of the Mean (baseline) VUCA that we used to experience post-(somewhat) pandemic, or is the brittleness and incomprehensibility here to stay? Is this a shorter-term view with BANI, or a forever?

And with our children, will they rise to combat the current world of anxiety and personal disconnection/social overconnection' to find and rise up to better outcomes for their own children...if somehow that is even possible with exponential technical changes coming from our now non-linear world?

20/11/2021 10:01:03 pm

Thank you, Krista. I think you posed some profound and important questions. I'm unsure whether the world has become more 'BANI' per se or whether, perhaps, something has shifted in e.g. our awareness, emotional experience or ways of making sense of the world in light of the Covid-19 pandemic etc..?

My sense is that, for a long time, people in the poorer countries have lived with BANI realities every day of their lives whilst, in the richer countries, we had managed to insulate ourselves (to a degree) by our wealth, technology etc. (If of interest, see e.g. https://www.nick-wright.com/clash-of-realities.html)

The pandemic has brought a sense of deep sense of existential vulnerability back into the awareness and focus of people in the latter countries - and perhaps therein may lay seeds of hope for a different future for future generations? (On that theme, see e.g. https://www.nick-wright.com/a-jolting-wake-up-call.html).I hope so.

Edz Dayuha

21/11/2021 02:29:44 pm

So true. This is empowering to hear! Indeed, we should not forget that every problem has a solution! Thanks for sharing this!

22/11/2021 01:04:23 pm

Hi Edz. You’re welcome! In a dynamically-complex world, we could say: “Every problem has a solution…and every solution has a problem.” A challenge can be to anticipate the latter, e.g. in terms of ‘perverse incentives’ or ‘unintended consequences’ (see, for instance: https://www.nick-wright.com/blog/rescue).

Dr. Ratneshwar Prasad Sinha

30/11/2021 05:41:31 pm

Love this.

30/11/2021 05:42:07 pm

Thank you, Ratneshwar.