‘Sleight of hand, of course, is not magic, but a skilled use of distraction to keep the ‘mark’ from noticing the real act that is being done. It takes advantage of a natural tendency to follow the obvious and to miss the more important thing that is carefully obscured.’ (Colin Harris) Geopolitics is like a game of chess in which half the pieces are invisible and nothing is what it seems. Like a magician that tricks by misdirection, we can find our attention drawn to the person or the issue that lays immediately in front of our eyes and miss the vital background. In WW2, why did the USA use devastating nuclear weapons against Japan? To prevent further loss of American lives by avoiding having to invade the Japanese homeland? Maybe. To fire a shot across the bow of Stalin and the rapidly-expanding Soviet Union? Almost certainly. On 9/11, why did Al Qaeda attack the twin towers and other symbolic targets in the USA? To strike a blow against the ‘Great Satan’? Maybe. To provoke an over-reaction from the USA that would, itself (they hoped), radicalise Muslims worldwide against the liberal West? Almost certainly. In 2003, why did the USA and its allies invade Iraq? To remove Saddam Hussein? To eliminate an imagined risk of ‘weapons of mass destruction’? Maybe. To secure US' and allies’ future oil supplies against a rapidly-developing China and its projected energy demands? Almost certainly. In 2022, why did Russia brutally invade Ukraine? To restore the power and prestige of the Soviet empire? To defend pro-Russian East Ukraine from ‘Ukrainian aggression’? Maybe. To fire a shot across the bow of an eastward-expanding NATO and EU? Almost certainly. On October 7, why did Hamas attack Israel so murderously? To punish Israel for its oppression of Palestinian people? Maybe. To provoke an over-reaction from Israel that would, itself, stop Saudi and other Muslim states normalising relations with Israel? Almost certainly. Why has Israel since retaliated against Gaza with such overwhelming force? To destroy Hamas and its military capabilities? To secure the release of the remaining Israeli hostages? Maybe. To fire a shot across the bow of Iran, an ever-increasing threat in the Middle East? Almost certainly.
22 Comments
Ben Faulkner
8/4/2024 08:30:09 pm
Nick, you do like to stir the waters in our thinking. Keep it up!
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Nick Wright
8/4/2024 08:39:51 pm
Thanks Ben. I share these possibilities as a way of stirring my own thinking too...
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Leila Ahmed
8/4/2024 08:32:44 pm
Thank you for sharing these interesting theories Nick. If I may ask, why do you say "almost" each time?
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Nick Wright
8/4/2024 08:43:09 pm
Hi Leila. You're welcome. I used the word 'almost' because I can't be sure, for certain, what the hidden motives were behind each of the actions I referred to. I don't want to sound like a conspiracy theorist, but I do want to keep my eyes open...as far as I can. On that theme, you may find this short piece interesting? https://www.nick-wright.com/blog/sceptic
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Hiroshi Tanaka
8/4/2024 08:35:00 pm
Nick Wright thank you for telling the truth about the bombs on my country. Maybe there were many reasons but it was not only a reason to stop Japanese military I think.
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Nick Wright
8/4/2024 08:46:01 pm
Hi Hiroshi. I can only imagine what the Japanese people suffered as a consequence of the nuclear attacks in 1945. It seems like, over time, more and more people wonder if there was a hidden agenda - particularly as an implicit warning to the Soviet Union at that time.
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Anna Petrov
8/4/2024 08:39:06 pm
Hello Nick. I believe Putin is dictator who wants power in Russia. He is like mafia. He also treat Russia people brutally. He is terrible man. NATO made it easy for him to attack Ukraine because NATO move its weapons to border Russia. Russia feel afraid of NATO. Why put weapons point at Russia? NATO gave Putin good excuse. Terrible war.
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Nick Wright
8/4/2024 08:49:52 pm
Hi Anna. Yes, Putin (from what I can understand in media reports and by his actions in Ukraine) is a violently oppressive dictator - including against any dissent within Russia. My impression is that NATO's expansion eastwards has created reasonable grounds for anxiety in Russia and, at the same time, provided a pretext for Putin to fulfil his wider aims including in Ukraine. It is such a terrible and painful mess.
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Paul Michael
8/4/2024 08:53:17 pm
Hi Nick. If I have got this right. So what you're saying is, there are hidden agendas behind some of these historical actions that aren't admitted publicly by those who do them. So they distract us from their real intentions. Why wouldn't they just say why they're doing what they do, be up front about it?
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Nick Wright
8/4/2024 09:03:17 pm
Hi Paul. Yes, hidden agendas. I imagine there could be various reasons for not disclosing them. For instance, it might give the game away if, for instance, the intention is to provoke an over-reaction to achieve a wider aim. Or it may be considered far too politically sensitive or provocative to admit publicly to the underlying intention.
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Ali Al-Farsi
8/4/2024 09:00:13 pm
You're right, Nick. Netanyahu's actions make it harder for Kingdom of Saudi Arabia normalise relationship with Israel. The Kingdom has reasons to normalise it but it will be scared to reactions from its people they are angry IDF is killing Muslims. Netanyahu is extremist zionist. Perhaps it possible in future when he is not Israel leader.
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Nick Wright
8/4/2024 09:06:39 pm
Thank you, Ali. On the face of it, it's difficult to imagine what state relationships will be between Israel and other countries after the current conflict in Gaza (and, by extension, the West Bank etc) ends. Perhaps, as you say, a change in leadership may enable a 'reset' of sorts. I hope so...
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Robert Newton
8/4/2024 10:21:13 pm
Clever ideas Nick but I don’t understand what obliterating Gaza has got to do with a warning to Iran?
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Nick Wright
9/4/2024 09:26:54 am
Hi Robert. It can send an implicit signal such as: 'If this is what we're capable of when we're showing restraint...imagine what we could do to you if we weren't..' Scary.
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Alex
9/4/2024 09:05:47 am
Thanks so much for your courage and creativity in provoking our thinking.
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Nick Wright
9/4/2024 09:39:40 am
Hi Alex. Thanks for your encouragement and, as always, for drawing our attention to the very real human experiences and impacts of these geopolitical games. I appreciate how you see the very real people and communities on both 'sides' of the current conflict in Israel-Gaza. It's an awful situation.
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Alice Saunders
9/4/2024 12:41:42 pm
Hi Nick. Why do you use "murderous attack" for Hamas and only "overwhelming force" for Israel? Is that your political bias? Don't you see what Israel is doing in Gaza? How many innocent people they have killed??
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Nick Wright
9/4/2024 12:49:31 pm
Hi Alice. I think that's a fair challenge. My sense is that, on October 7, Hamas deliberately attacked, murdered and kidnapped civilians in Israel. That is, by definition, a terrorist attack. By contrast, my sense is that the IDF has in effect often disregarded civilian lives in Gaza, resulting in a terrible death toll among the Palestinian people. Whether or not that constitutes a war crime will be decided by future international tribunals.
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Alice Saunders
9/4/2024 10:10:21 pm
You are missing the point. The whole world is united in condemnation of Israeli genocide in Gaza!!
Nick Wright
9/4/2024 10:13:02 pm
‘It remains astounding to me that the world is almost deafeningly silent when it comes to Hamas. We would not be where we are had they not chosen to engage in one of the most horrific acts of brutality and terrorism on October 7 and, having done that, then refused for these many, many months to get out of the way of civilians, to stop hiding behind them, to put down their arms, to release the hostages, to surrender. Where is the outrage there??’ (Antony Blinken: 9 April 2024)
Glen Thomson
9/4/2024 06:31:17 pm
Geopolitics is like a game of chess in which half the pieces are invisible and nothing is what it seems. So true.
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Nick Wright
9/4/2024 10:08:36 pm
Thanks Glen. It’s the only way I can make sense of it.
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Nick WrightI'm a psychological coach, trainer and OD consultant. Curious to discover how can I help you? Get in touch! Like what you read? Simply enter your email address below to receive regular blog updates!
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